The annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in St. Louis was the site of a talk on February 17, 2006 by biologist Shripad Tuljapurkar on the possible effects of longer lifespans. Dr Tuljapurkar predicts that antiaging technologies could extend human lifespan by 20 years between 2010 and 2030. Dr Tuljapurkar, who is the Dean and Virginia Morrison Professor of Population Studies at Stanford University, stated "Some people believe we are on the brink of being able to extend human lifespan significantly, because we've got most of the technologies we need to do it."

By examining relationships between trends in aging, population growth, and economic activity in various countries, and combining the data with forecasts from researchers in the field of aging, Dr Tuljapurkar concluded that "Starting around 2010, we could see lifespan increase dramatically."

The extension of average lifespan in industrialized countries from 80 to 100 years reflects a growth rate in human lifespan that is five times the current rate. Although this will boost global population, creating a number of challenges, a longer lived population could be the solution to the population decline forecasted for countries with low fertility rates. Dr Tuljapukar predicts that the extension in lifespan will occur in wealthier countries in which people can afford antiaging technologies, leaving poorer countries behind. "Big pharmaceutical companies have a well-established track record of being very difficult when it comes to making things available to those who can't pay for them," he observed.

"What we've tended to do historically with medical advances is to take the reasonable position that we should implement everything that comes along," Dr Tuljapurkar concluded. "However, we are now approaching a stage where it's necessary to look the implications before we rush in--at least so we can prepare ourselves."

—D Dye